Sunday, October 17, 2004

Polling place

Several polls have finally come in with all the after-debate responses and it seems like Kerry has made leads in several ststes while slipping in the national poll. I said once before that the national really doesn't tell you anything, especially for the challenger. What it does tell you is how bad an incumbent is doing, popularity wise. The fact that a president whose second term was all but assured on 9/11 and who had approval ratings topping 90% is now at the mid 40s battling with a career politician says something. It also says something that Bush didn't anticipate a fight with said career politician who has a moderte record in the Senate and has a military record with the medals to prove it. Something could be said about being "in the bubble." Electoral-Vote has it a 253-247 Kerry lead in the Electoral College, mostly due to Iowa, Florida and New Hampshire being tied in the latest polls. I've heard too much stuff on ground work in Florida and hte dropping of the felons list and many Cuban-Americans being upset with Bush's Cuba policy to believe that Florida is anything but a blue state. I think turnout will be high among Democrats there, giving Kerry 280 and the presidency. I'm more than a little worried about Colorado, though. If their amendment goes through and Kerry gets a share of their EVs, there might be a Supreme Court challenge and for the second time in a row, we wouldn't know who our predient was until after all elections were certified. Though I think the amendment will pass, I don't think the race will be so close as to rely on a portion of Colorado's 9 votes. I've pretty much given up the ghost on Gallup. They have Bush ahead by 8 points post debate, which I think is just silly. To petty much everyone but Wolf Blitzer it is pretty obvious that they are oversampling Republicans. Rasmussen has it advantage Bush by 2 points, 48-46, and I've yet to see a Zogby poll, but I think Rasmussen knows his sampling data and is just as good. Overall, I would have to say advantage Kerry, as long as he gets his base turned out along with the swing voters who are leaning his way. I heard Ken Mehlman say this morning that the Republicans had registered 3 million new voters this cycle, hopefully McAuliffe and the Dems have got more than that this election. Turn out, turn out, turn out people. Call your brother and his dog to get people voting. UPDATE: For anyone who wants a further explanation of the ludicrousness of the Gallup poll, read Ruy Teixeira's post on the subject.

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