Monday, October 25, 2004

Polls, polls. Who's got the polls

According to Zogby, whom I trust implicitly, Kerry has gone down in his numbers. Two key states fall to the Bush column then, Florida and New Mexico, giving Bush a victory. As much as I trust Zogby, I still don't think the polls show what has been an awesome effort to get new voters registered. Many of those newly registered are Democrats in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and New Mexico. The groundwork laid in those states is phenomenol as well. With almost a million new Democrats in Florda alone, how can you say weakly Bush with a straight face? The answer lies in a serious flaw wth polling today. Many of those newly registered Democrats are college students who don't have land-based phone lines. They live and die by their cell phones, which pollsters do not call. There are literally millions of Kerry voters not being polled out there. All they have to do is show up on Election Day and Kerry walks away with the win. The abnormally high early voting turnout in every state is evidence enough of this for me. Here in Texas, the turnout among young people in the largest counties already accounts for 13% of the voting population according to BOR. I wouldn't be surprised if low turnout among Republicans and tis higher-than-average turnout among possible Dems may make texas a red state by a razor thin margin. In states where it was already a low margin, it could make all the difference. I've also given up on the ballot initiative in Colorado. I don't think it will pass and I don't think it will matter. We've got a good shot at that state, as well as Arkansas. I wouldn't have said that a month ago.


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