Sunday, October 03, 2004

Some new numbers to digest

According to Newsweek's latest poll, Kerry won the debate and received enough of a bounce to come to a statistical tie with Bush. To be honest I really don't trust the Newsweek poll anymore, but assuming that this week's data and all previous data are correct, then Kerry got some 13 points coming out of the debate. Most people watching the debate would not see a 13-point bounce afterward as possible, which is why I don't trust the numbers. The problem most people have with Gallup (who does the polling for Newsweek) is taking a higher sample of Republicans than what turned out for the last election. But even if they oversample Republicans, there is still a big bounce for Kerry. I think that fits in with what we are seeing with the higher number of Democrats picking Kerry than Republicans picking Bush. Republicans have ceded a Kerry victory in the debate, and he may even have changed a few minds. Short story shorter, while I don't trust the actually numbers, the trend exhibited in Gallup's polls do follow the trends in the horserace and this race is definitely the inevitable Bush victory that Karl Rove tries to paint.

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