Monday, November 01, 2004

Election 2004 Predictions

I know we've all heard a lot of stuff about electoral college projections and who has what state as a given. I'm here to tell you exactly how it is going ot turn out Wednesday morning, Nov. 3. I'm going to mainly limit myself to battleground states, choosing to believe that Gore-states and Bush-states will keep most of their trends. Any that may switch, I'll point out along the way. Let's start where it all ended last time, Florida. We've already seen that the majority of early voters have chosen Kerry. The ground game there has been super and memories of the disenfranchisement of African-Americans four years ago has spurred huge turnout. Iowa, land of farmer's daughters has a lot of Democrats in it. Though it went Gore by the slightest of margins, fears of losing a state with 10 electoral votes has kept activists on the ground knockig on doors. I'm willing to bet that Iowa will pick Comeback Kerry once again this year. Pennsylvania. I can only go with my gut on this one, because I haven't seen a lot of polls lately. But I think the momentum in that state has been trending Kerry for a while. And did you see that crowd in Philly last Monday? Ohio is going for Kerry, as well. Same type of ground operation in Ohio as Florida, so look for a larger than expected margin. Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota will all go Kerry. OK, now here as some you might not agree with me on. Hawaii is going to Kerry, I don't care what pollsters say. I mean they picked Kucinich in the primary, you really think Kerry is too liberal for them. Sending Dick Cheney there was just like sending Bush to campaign in California in 2000. It's Rove's way of showing confidence, and it's going to cost them again. New Hampshire will follow the rest of New England with Kerry. Last time, they went Bush, but two things stand out about that. First, Kerry is a fellow New Englader, Gore was a southerner. Two, Kerry has been hammering on his message of hope in that state. It's a lot like Bushs comapssionate conservatism in 2000. It will probably sway them enough to turn out for him. New Mexico will go Kerry. This will become a large part of the Democratic strategy in the next cycle. With the growing Hispanic population in the Southwest, very soon they will be the majority of the area and they trend Democrat. New Mexico, California, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada will be the base that keeps Democrats in the White House to carry out our agenda over the next decade. As long as we are the party of minority inclusion they will keep us in power in the Southwest, as well as our current holdings along the West Coast and New England. That is the future of the electoral map, but we get to see a glimpse of it tomorrow. I think Kerry's got a real shot at Arkansas if Democrats really turn out there. I also think Democrats have a good chance here in texas. That is heresy to say, but the huge early voting turn out we had in this state that is supposedly wrapped up has me wondering. Why would they vote early for an incumbent from their home state? What if the GOP thinks they have this state locked, so they don't go to the polls tomorrow? If I've done my math correctly, I think the end result will be 311-231 for Kerry. That gives us some real wiggle room, like sacrificing New Mexico for turnout in Michigan. But all in all, we're in a very good position against an incumbent who had an approval rating over 85% just a year and a half ago. To look at a picture of a map, go to Electoral-Vote.com, which I pretty much agree with except for what I've noted above. More stuff later about some local races and some down ballot stuff.

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