Tuesday, November 16, 2004

Why we're probably still not going to win Ohio

David Shuster gives one more post at Hardblogger to discuss why Kerry still won't win Ohio when all of the provisional and "spoiled" ballots are counted. An excerpt:

Now, let's assume a preference can be determined on all 93,000 spoiled ballots. And let's also assume John Kerry receives 80% and President Bush receives 20%. John Kerry would receive 74,400 votes and President Bush would receive 18,600 votes. That's another net gain for John Kerry of 55,800. However, that still leaves John Kerry 3,000 votes short. And remember, the theory that Kerry is going to receive 80% of all provisional and "spoiled" ballots is not realistic. As the Kerry campaign noted on November 3, "the votes are just not going to be there."
And there not. I'm glad that there is going to be a recount in certain places and some checking on voter irregularities, but only because that will help us in the next election before the votes are cast. I'm looking forward to the next cycle, not looking back. And that's how we need to think in order to win elections.

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